SERP and CTR, or The Myth of Reason

Heuristics. Cognitive Biases. Media. A Sociological Approach to SEO.

Last updated: September 2025.
Reading time: 20 minutes
Reading Setting: Quiet. With coffee.

In 2025, the job of the SEO specialist is akin to that of poor Sisyphus, who rolls his boulder up the mountain from dusk till dawn, and dusk till dawn. We optimize tirelessly to laboriously hoist a link to the top of the search results page (SERP), and upon reaching the first position, the supreme goal is attained, the rock is finally at the top of the hill, and yet... Success is nowhere to be found, leaving nothing but the option to start over. The latest data confirms it: the Click-Through Rate (CTR)of the first organic position plummeted from 28% to 19% between 2024 and 2025, and that of the top five positions by approximately 17.92%[1]. The end of the line is in sight.

So, have we incurred the wrath of the gods? Have we vexed the SEs with persistent cunning and greed? Are we condemned to compare statistics for eternity, searching for mathematical, predictable, and modelable—almost Pavlovian—behaviors that would offer us the key to salvation? Or should we focus on an entirely different phenomenon? Abandon the cult of the algorithm and plunge into behavioral science?

This is what this in-depth article explores, putting the latest SEO statistics into perspective with the lessons of Palo Alto to elucidate the mechanisms that leave us helpless today in the face of metamorphosed SERPs—an oppressive world where the first positions are no longer the CTR's Holy Grail.

What do SERPs and CTR have to do with Pavlov's dog, you might ask? Well, it's a long story that seeks to elucidate the mechanisms at play behind human behaviors: why people do what they do, how their decisions are made, which factors make them change course—skimming over your link, but clicking on the next one. Questions that fit into a context of change, where the first position on the SERP is no longer a guarantee of clicks, and two links technically and algorithmically optimized in the same way can yield diametrically opposed results. By grinding these links through SEO audit tools, one quickly realizes that the answer to the paradox is not in the code: it is in the human psyche.

Don't settle too quickly on Freud's couch to probe your subconscious drives; we will stick to the more pragmatic concepts of prospect theory: that palette of cognitive biases and heuristics that undermine the predictability of the CTR in 2025.

Without further ado, let's dive into the "why" of the user's choices, but, above all, the "how" of their click—always in search of the future of SEO.

Welcome to the black box of mental processes!

The SERP Transformation: From the Blue List to Search Intent

Behaviorism and SEO, or the User-Pigeon (Skinner's Pigeon)

At the origin of behaviorism is Pavlov's dog. A theory of learning through a stimulus-response mechanism demonstrating how a conditioned stimulus (a bell ringing) can provoke a reflexive response (salivation) in a dog. This is called classical conditioning. Then, a certain Skinner introduced the notion of operant conditioning, where behavior is reinforced or inhibited by its consequences. Thus, in Skinner's pigeon box, the subject is more likely to repeat an action and develop a Pavlovian reflex when the response to the stimulus causes satisfaction. Note that both Pavlov and Skinner, on the one hand, limit themselves to the observable by ignoring the cognitive processes at work in the minds of their subjects, and, on the other hand, neglect the question of the mediumduring their audacious experiments. The vector of the message between the sender and the receiver. Namely, the media—we will come back to this.

At the origin of SEO is PageRank, Google's algorithm that ranks links on SERPs via a netlinking system where each backlink is considered a vote of confidence, teaching the user to click on the first link in the list—the most reliable, according to this principle—to obtain satisfaction. This is the magic of operant conditioning.

Things could have been simple, but Pavlov and Google were wrong. The user's decision-making is not limited to learning a reflex, and where algorithms feed on mathematical stimulus-responses, humans are creatures of mental shortcuts, cognitive biases, and heuristics that make them vulnerable to persuasion mechanisms. This is a boon for web marketing specialists.

Finally, we won't dwell on it. You know as well as I do that this netlinking story ended badly. From this drama, Panda was born, and now we are neck-deep in cognitive biases. Trying to understand when, how, and why the user behaves, and where and how to position ourselves to get their attention on the SERP. The famous medium.

The SERP as a Medium: A Necessary Reading for CTR Predictability

By extricating itself from its primary function as a simple indexing tool, the SERP has begun to operate as a medium in its own right. A medium in the sociological sense of the term: this medium that is not just a channel of information, but a social actor in its own right, an entity so dear to our hearts—we, children of McLuhan.

On the Nature of the Medium

“The medium is the message,” McLuhan philosophized while contemplating his sprawling global village, and his postulate proves all the more pressing today, as the SERP becomes a sophisticated information dissemination device, quite far from the original Blue List. It aggregates and presents varied content—organic links, advertisements, Featured Snippets, People Also Ask, Knowledge Panels, images, videos—configuring a true environment of media consumption. Each graphic and textual element, each technical and structural choice, shapes the user experience, guiding the gaze and attention, then the click.

By constantly thinking about algorithm and ranking, we get used to ignoring the media dimension of SERPs, reducing the search phenomenon to a simple technical interaction, disregarding the psychosocial, behavioral drivers that guide clicks and navigation. The sociological approach to the SERP seeks to deconstruct this surface model to explore its underlying dynamics: how SEs construct information, how users react not only rationally but also emotionally and socially, and how these interactions ultimately shape the CTR. Predicting the user's behavioron the SERP means first understanding the SERP medium itself, in all its dark reliefs and ambiguities.

On the Social Roles of the Medium

In the sociology of communication, the medium is not just a technical device, a tool, or a technology enabling communication. It is an entity that shapes the message, notably by taking on three predominant roles:

• Social Institution: The medium is structured by organizations (the SEs, for the SERP) that have their own rules, values, and interests (economic, in particular).
• Actor in the Social Construction of Reality: A key point of the sociology of communication, the medium does not just "reflect" reality; it actively participates in its construction by selecting, prioritizing, and contextualizing information, influencing the user's perception of it.
• Public Space: The medium is an arena where different worldviews are expressed and confronted. A place of democracy, power, and counter-power, which plays a crucial role in the functioning of our societies.

On the Stakes of the Medium

The transformations of the SERP call more than ever for them to be considered as complex media, the domain of SEs, powerful media institutions, far from being neutral intermediaries. In fact, their algorithms are the reflection of technical, commercial, and even ideological choices that determine what is considered relevant, reliable, or popular. Thus, the rules of the SEO game are institutionalized, and all that remains is to deal with it—the perfect example is in the webmaster guidelines published by Google.

In addition to the editorial lines of the SEs that we must strive to conform to, it is necessary to set aside the SERP-tool in favor of the SERP-actor, as it establishes itself as a space for the social construction of reality. The organization of information on the SERP, at the discretion of the SEs, influences the user's perception of reality. This is where the SERPs become the mirror of cognitive filters and acquired behaviors, mixing judgment heuristics, interaction norms, and Skinner's pigeon, and the CTR is the culmination of a complex interaction between the user, the link, the message, and the medium.

The evolution of statistics modeling user navigation behavior, in light of SERP transformations, clearly illustrates the emptiness of the Myth of Reason when faced with the impact of mental processes on the CTR.

Inside the Mental Processes Box: From PageRank to AIO

For many years, the most powerful signal on the SERP was the link's position. Empirical studies long corroborated this vision, with an average CTR of 39.8%[1] for position 1. Then, things changed.

The Blue List

Between 2010-2015, in the "Blue List" Era, when the SERPs were just a list of ten organic links and nothing else, eye-tracking studies revealed that users adopted a rapid, hasty, and impatient scanning approach, following an "F" pattern (from left to right and top to bottom). Clicks went to the first linksthat seemed relevant: this is the "Depth-First" behavior, with Pavlovian auras. Thus, 75% of users clicked instantly rather than browsing the SERP for the most adequate link[2].

In this model, the user globally contents himself with producing a constant response to a constant stimulus, and when clicking on the first link brings satisfaction, the conditioning becomes operant, and the behavior is reinforced.

We can cautiously deduce two things: (1) there was, in the Blue List era, almost blind trustin the effectiveness of Search Engines (SE) in ranking links starting with the best—whatever "best" may mean—and (2) the user's behavior was already moving away from the Myth of Reason, a criticized theory according to which our actions are primarily based on rational reasoning, by prioritizing a ranking order over a study of the relevance of the links as such.

Zero Click Search

From 2016 to 2020, it was the advent of the Era of Zero Click Search. Google began to significantly enrich its SERPs with features like Featured Snippets, Knowledge Panels, and People Also Ask (PAA) modules[4]. The SERP reading moved from the "F" pattern to the pinball pattern, with a random eye movement that no longer systematically drew the first link to the user's attention. The goal of these features is to provide direct answers to user queries, without them needing to click on a link. From this, the terrible phenomenon of Good Abandonment appears, a concept that Google defines as the user's positive abandonment when they find satisfaction directly on the SERP without needing to click anywhere. Thus, Zero Click Searches are born: in 2019, 49% of searches on Google ended without a click. In 2020, this rate jumped to nearly 65%of searches[5].

Generative AI and AIO

2021-2024 is the Era of Generative AIand fluctuating behaviors, as everyone still has to find their footing. The introduction of AIOs, (AI Overviews), formerly Search Generative Experience (SGE), marks the latest stage of this evolution, with the ambition of transforming Google into a true search assistant that aims for instant satisfaction. According to Ahref, there is a 34.5% decrease in CTR for the best-ranked sites[1]. In 2024, the figures are slightly contradictory with a decrease in the Zero Click Search rate compared to its peak (58.5%), but this drop is likely explained by the initial technical problems and temporary withdrawals of the SGE feature, which prompted users to revert to clicking behavior to verify information[6].

Cognitive Biases for Predicting CTR

The reading of recent statistics is troubling for anyone who has spent the last few years optimizing for the first position. According to data compiled by GrowthSRC and Ahrefs, the organic CTR for the first position dropped by 32% between 2024 and 2025, falling from 28% to 19%, while the second position experienced an even more brutal decline of 39%[1]. The main cause of this collapse is the emergence of AIOs and Product Widgets on the SERP, which occupy a significant space and offer an immediate answer to the user's query.

Despite the general decline in CTR for the top positions, the CTR of the top 3 still captures more than half of the clicks in 2024 (51.1%)[6]. A resilience that is explained by the incidence of various cognitive biases, which tear human behavior away from the simplistic logic of Pavlov-Skinnerto place it in the hands of mental processes.

The Anchoring Effect: The Tyranny of Position and Notoriety

One of the most studied and powerful cognitive biases is the anchoring effect. This psychosocial phenomenon suggests that the first informationan individual encounters disproportionately influences their subsequent judgments and decisions. In the context of the SERP, ranking position is the most powerful anchor there is. The human brain, through a simple and quick heuristic, has been conditioned to associate visual primacy with authority and relevance.

The anchoring effect can concern two distinct fields: (1) a technical anchor (its position) and a psychosocial anchor (its reputation). Thus, we observe a clear superiority of recognized companies on the SERPs compared to their emerging competitors.

Social Proof: The Lighthouse for Lost Souls.

While, in 2025, SERPs are no longer tunnels connecting the user and the site, but labyrinths with multiple choices, the concept of social proof asserts itself as a compass. It corresponds to the human tendency we have to let the actions of others influence us, particularly in ambiguous situations, and it establishes itself as one of the most powerful tools. On the SERP, the signals acting as social proof are essentially visual elements of the rich snippets (enhanced excerpts): rating stars, number of reviews, mentions indicating how many times a product has been purchased.

These elements create a perception of credibility and authoritythat is not directly linked to the organic rank of the page, and which can surpass a technically irreproachable but visually less convincing link. The simple act of displaying a four-star rating can transform a link that was disregarded into a lighthouse in the night.

The Halo Effect: Trust Before the Click

The halo phenomenon is a cognitive bias that occurs when a positive or negative characteristic of an entity (a brand, a website, an article, etc.) influences the user's general perception of that entity. It is a mental shortcut, where the user does not judge a link in isolation, but includes it in their perception of the entityfrom which it comes. Halos are mainly formed around visual and notoriety cues. Convincing rich snippets or a brand's reputation are typically at their origin.

Loss Aversion: From Prospect Theory

A central concept of prospect theory, loss aversion posits that the pain of a loss is stronger than the pleasure of a gainfor the user. On a SERP, this translates into behavior aimed at avoiding losing time at all costs through unsuccessful clicks. Rich snippets and social proof tend to reduce uncertainty by giving an impression of guaranteed satisfaction, which minimizes risk-taking.

The Reference Point: From Prospect Theory 2

A second key concept of prospect theory, the reference pointis the level from which the user will evaluate potential losses and gains. Here, the SERP is the reference point, and the results are judged in relation to each other. In other words, a user who arrives at a link after bouncing from a previous disappointing link will judge their new find through the prism of their previous disappointment.

2025: Positioning on the SERP of the Future

Once a simple waypoint between the user and the information, the SERP is now asserting itself as a final destination, so what will happen to websites?

Again, marketing agencies' passion for statistics provides us with some quantified answers to this question.

The Glory Days of Positions 6-10

The data shows that the drop in CTR for the first links is associated with a 30.63% increase in CTR for positions 6 to 10 in 2025[1]. This observation, running counter to the general erosion, can be explained by: (1) AIOs and Featured Snippets do not fully satisfy the user's intent, and (2) these unsatisfying features summarize the top 5 links. Thus, the dissatisfied user will naturally look for other answers directly in the lower results, previously considered marginal. We observe, incidentally, a neat cannibalization phenomenon, as the AIOs devour the clicks of the links they used to construct their answer.

Measuring and Anticipating the Unobservable?

Ultimately, in 2025, the question is no longer so much where to position oneself on the SERP, but how to present oneself there. In this new landscape, the first position is only one of the multiple anchors that shape the user's perception. While prospect theory is nothing new in the marketing world, its impact is growing with the evolution of the SERPs and is transfiguring SEO, which until then was strongly subjected to a mathematical logic—in which even UX had to enter. The SEO of tomorrow must more than ever navigate between the pitfalls of halos, social proofs, and heuristics, and abandon the rational to busy itself with modeling the unobservable—groping in the black box in search of new factors of predictability.

Final Word: A Bit of Philosophy

As the era of AI reshuffles the SERP public space and redistributes clicks, we abandon the rational for the emotional, and behaviorism for the intention behind the response to the stimulus, and we capitalize, more than ever, on cognitive biases.

Should we, however, completely deny our Skinner's pigeons and Pavlovian reflexes? Operant conditioning is based on the consequences of a behavior, and it can be useful to keep in mind that a satisfying click is more likely to be repeatedthan an unsatisfying click, as cognition does not replace learning. Halo effect, prospect theory, and heuristics... The quality of the content behind the blue link still remains a major driver of the CTR.

The question remains whether the black box of mental processes will be the next frontier for SEO specialists, or just a parenthesis before algorithmic, technological, or institutional changes once again change the game...